Stablecoin dominance curls bullish but final confirmation is still absent
Combined stablecoin dominance still has not poked above the Cloud, although its Slow line is beginning to curl upward, indicating that its macro trend is turning bullish. Aaron's final capitulation-dump confirmation requires both a close above the Cloud and a TBO Open Long; neither condition should be silently flattened into the macro curl. BTC.D is strong bearish below its Cloud, but falling BTC.D can shift dominance toward ALTs in a way Aaron explicitly calls misleading in a Bottom Year. ETH.D is still rising slowly but could collapse inside its Cloud. SOL.D confirmed a TBO Open Long, yet Aaron says that means nothing to him here. Separately, RSI made a lower high and the Slow line still points down. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
TOTALES turns macro-bearish while TOTALES.D remains inside its Cloud
TOTALES' Slow line is curling down more and more, telling Aaron that the macro trend across crypto is leaning more bearish. The chart wicked below its Cloud again, RSI has not made a new local low yet, and OBV remains in bearish momentum to the downside. Do not transfer that state to TOTALES.D: the dominance chart remains inside its daily TBO Cloud and has not wicked below it yet. OTHERS.D printed a TBT Bullish Divergence and TOTALE100.D is working on one, but Aaron dismissed both in this context. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
DXY and USDJPY preserve their exact future-trigger sequence
DXY still has not tagged its daily TBO Fast line. Once it does, Aaron's optimal outcome is a later support loss and drop toward 96, which would be bullish continuation for US indices and forex pairs. USDJPY is the pair he is watching: Thursday's close brought the Fast line below Support, but the rejection has not happened yet. The future confirmation is a quick Fast-line tag followed by rejection at newly lost support to confirm resistance. Only then can the stated path open toward 155.025, flushing over-levered longs, and hopefully 140 or lower. This is a best-case scenario, not a complete trade plan.
TradFi pushes higher while VIX carries a temporary market-top signal
S&P Futures made a new all-time high Thursday. PMI remains strong and is heading toward a market-top range, but Aaron expects the S&P to keep pushing higher until August data arrives in early September. SPX printed a 4h TBO Breakout; it could be an exhaustion breakout, yet Aaron currently expects continuation. Nasdaq reached TBO Resistance and may be in all-time-high territory next week, NVDA looks likely to push above TBO Resistance, TSLA entered bullish consolidation inside its Cloud, and SPCX held 0.382. VIX itself looks very bullish and has almost no fear, but if it gets close to or tags TBO Support at 13.35, Aaron says to treat that as a temporary market-top signal. Nikkei is working on an Open Long with a perfect 4h TBO Breakout Cluster, Shanghai almost closed its Close Short, Hang Seng is retreating deeper into the Cloud, and KOSPI remains in bullish consolidation. Gold did not reach resistance; TBO Resistance dropped to 4,449.830, its August 5 TBO Close Short remains open, and it already tagged the weekly Fast line.
ALT signals range from ignored early divergence to conditional strength
DOGE printed a TBT Bullish Divergence Cluster Thursday, but Aaron explicitly says to ignore this early bullish reversal signal: three prior clusters since December 2025 failed during the decline, and BTC is on the brink of falling more. HYPE did close above the Fast line and has a decent chance to push toward the Cloud top only so long as BTC does not negatively influence it; Aaron says that negative influence remains wholly possible. LINK made a higher price high but a lower RSI high, a bearish divergence, though it could still push slightly higher before a deeper cut. BNB remains strong bullish above the Cloud for now with RSI cracks forming. SOL could lose support again, HBAR threatens a new local low, SHIB confirmed a TBO Open Short, CRO's attempted bullish RSI Reset resembles two failed attempts, UNI confirmed below long-term support and went oversold, AAVE is expected below 0.236, and ONDO's valid bounce remains hinged on BTC not dumping. PUMP is extremely strong bullish, so Aaron warns against shorting it. ATOM is overbought after a 7% move and Close Short but could still reach the Slow line.
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