Combined futures open interest for
Bitcoin and
Ethereum dropped from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week. The 14% reduction reflects deleveraging as traders unwind positions amid heightened volatility, Kaiko's data indicates.
Bitcoin's alignment with the four-year halving cycle has strengthened since the year began. However, determining the bear market's depth remains complicated because many factors that drove the rally to $126,000 persist, said Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research.
Oversold conditions are appearing on multiple timeframes. The question surrounding a
Bitcoin rebound centers on timing rather than likelihood, Young noted when discussing market technical structure.
The $60,000 level approximately matches Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, a metric that historically provided long-term support. Whether this price represents the cycle bottom remains uncertain as cryptocurrency participants debate market trajectory.
Kaiko highlighted that a 52% retracement from all-time highs appears unusually shallow compared to previous bear markets. Historical cycles saw drawdowns between 60% and 68%, which would place a potential Bitcoin bottom in the $40,000 to $50,000 range based on pattern analysis.
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