That would also bring Bitcoin closer to the $65,000-$65,200 area identified in another market analysis as a previous four-hour order block.
Until buyers reclaim that broader resistance zone, a recovery should be viewed as a potential retracement rather than confirmation of a sustained uptrend.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators Remain Cautious
The latest TradingView data presents a more restrained picture than the one-hour RSI divergence.
Bitcoin was trading near $62,990 in the cited technical snapshot, with the overall indicator summary showing 14 sell signals, 10 neutral readings, and two buy signals. Moving averages accounted for most of the negative bias, with 13 sell readings compared with one neutral and one buy.
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin
The RSI stood at 43, remaining below the neutral midpoint of 50 but well above conventional oversold territory. The Average Directional Index was around 14, indicating relatively weak trend strength.
The MACD also remained negative, while several other oscillators were classified as neutral. Taken together, the indicators suggest that Bitcoin is not experiencing an extreme oversold condition that would independently confirm a strong rebound.
The moving averages are more concerning for bulls. The EMA 10 stood near $63,504, while the EMA 20 and EMA 30 were around $63,749 and $63,857, respectively. The EMA 50 was near $64,301.
Longer-term averages were considerably higher, with the 100-period EMA around $66,394 and the 200-period EMA near $71,661.
This leaves the $63,500-$64,500 region as an important resistance cluster for the BTC price.
Thin Orderbook Could Amplify Bitcoin Moves
Market liquidity is another factor that could influence the next move.
Glassnode has highlighted a significant reduction in spot orderbook depth. Its orderbook data describes depth as the amount of resting liquidity available around the market price, with thinner depth generally meaning that larger orders can have a greater impact on price.
Bitcoin’s previously strong June buy-side liquidity has declined significantly, leaving the market with thinner support levels beneath the current price. Source: Glassnode via X
The source material indicates that the substantial layer of buy orders accumulated beneath Bitcoin during June has since diminished. At the same time, sell-side liquidity near the current price has also remained relatively limited.
This creates a less crowded trading environment. Rather than providing strong support or resistance, a thinner orderbook can allow relatively modest buying or selling to move the market more quickly.
That makes the $62,800-$63,000 area particularly important. A successful defense could support a rebound, while a clean break lower could expose the market to a faster decline.
Glassnode’s broader market research has also described BTC as operating in a consolidation regime with contracted exchange liquidity and reduced aggressive selling pressure.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $62.8K Support Remains Critical
Another technical setup places immediate support between $62,800 and $63,000.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin recently tested this area after rejection from the $65,000-$65,200 four-hour order block. The proposed short-term path is a rebound toward $63,600-$64,400 before another test of market structure.
Bitcoin is testing $62,800–$63,000 support after rejecting $65,000–$65,200, with a potential rebound toward $63,600–$64,400 unless the broader bearish structure persists. Source: Adrian_NovaTrader on TradingView
A sweep below $62,800 followed by a strong four-hour recovery would strengthen the case for a relief move. Conversely, sustained weakness below $62,150 would invalidate that bullish retracement scenario and expose the $61,600-$61,400 region.
The classic pivot level from the TradingView data sits around $62,491, providing another nearby reference point.
These levels create a relatively well-defined short-term range. Holding the lower boundary could encourage buyers to test resistance, while a decisive breakdown would weaken the rebound thesis.
Analysts Disagree on the 2026 Bitcoin Outlook
The short-term divergence comes against a much broader debate over the Bitcoin price forecast 2026.
Ali Martinez has argued that BTC could eventually establish a cycle bottom between October 6 and October 16, based on historical four-year halving-cycle behavior. His analysis calls for gradual accumulation across a range extending from approximately $62,000 toward $48,000 before a potential final capitulation phase.
The analyst expects Bitcoin to form a cycle bottom between October 6 and 16, 2026, recommending gradual accumulation from $62,000 toward $48,000 before a potential final capitulation. Source: Ali Martinez via X
That projection represents a substantially more bearish medium-term scenario than the current RSI setup.
It also highlights why a short-term rebound should not automatically be interpreted as the beginning of a new bull market. Bitcoin has already fallen significantly from its record high near $126,000. Current market data places the asset around $63,000, roughly half of that peak.
Historical cycle analysis can provide context, but it cannot establish a precise future bottom. Price behavior, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and investor flows will ultimately determine whether the market follows a similar pattern.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Rebound or Another Leg Lower?
The current Bitcoin price prediction remains balanced between a potential short-term recovery and continued downside risk.
The bullish case is supported by the one-hour RSI divergence, weakening selling pressure, and the possibility of a move back toward the $64,000 POC and Anchored VWAP zone. A sustained breakthrough in that area could put $65,500 into focus.
The bearish case remains grounded in the broader technical structure. BTC is still below most major moving averages; the daily TradingView rating remains sell-oriented, and the market has not reclaimed the $64,400-$65,200 resistance region.
For now, the $62,800-$63,000 area represents the first major test for buyers. Holding it could allow the market to attempt a recovery toward $64,000. A decisive break below $62,150, however, would weaken the short-term bullish setup and shift attention toward $61,600-$61,400.
The RSI divergence therefore offers evidence of weakening selling momentum, not confirmation of a new uptrend. The market will need to reclaim successive resistance levels, particularly $64,000 and $65,500, before the broader structure can be considered meaningfully more constructive.
