The House passed a stopgap funding bill 220-205 on July 21, moving its proposed government-funding deadline from September 30 to December 4 and placing it after the midterms. This has led to the odds of a Government shutdown happening across all predition markets.
But that is no longer the full picture: on August 8, the Senate passed its own version 90-6, extending funding through December 11 instead. The two versions still need to be reconciled, meaning Congress has moved closer to avoiding an October shutdown without yet completing the process.
For Bitcoin traders, that distinction matters. The immediate September 30 cliff looks less threatening, but the underlying funding fight has largely been pushed deeper into the year rather than eliminated.
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Odds of a Government Shutdown: A Rescheduled Fight, Not a Settled One
The disputes behind the funding deadline were not settled by the July House vote. The House measure simply extended current funding largely at existing levels through December 4, while the Senate's subsequent version would run through December 11 and contains provisions absent from the House bill.
The Senate bill also restricts the administration's ability to redirect certain funds and temporarily blocks a White House rule requiring political review of federal grants. Those differences mean the legislation must return to the House before it can reach President Trump's desk.
Meanwhile, House Republicans have separately advanced a $95 billion budget plan covering Iran-related defense and intelligence spending, farm assistance and parts of President Trump's election-law agenda. The baseline appropriations fight has therefore been postponed rather than permanently settled.
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What the Prediction Markets Are Saying
Kalshi and Polymarket run event contracts that pay according to whether defined outcomes occur under each market's resolution rules. The October 1 shutdown market therefore measures whether a shutdown occurs around that specific deadline, not whether another funding confrontation emerges in December.
Source: Kalshi
That distinction has become even more important since the Senate vote. With both chambers now backing temporary funding beyond the midterms, the probability of an October shutdown should not be treated as a proxy for the broader probability of another fiscal confrontation later in 2026.
