Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin and remains bearish pending Cloud loss
ETH pumped about 2%, yet it still underperformed BTC. Aaron remains bearish on ETH and says it still needs to drop below the Cloud; that future Cloud loss is not rewritten as already confirmed. ETH/BTC reinforced the relative-performance read by printing a TBT Bearish Divergence. The key distinction is between the current bearish thesis and the Cloud-loss trigger that remains ahead.
Dominance shifted toward BTC while broader ALT strength remained limited
BTC’s pump pushed combined stablecoin dominance lower, while dominance moved in favor of BTC.D. Aaron’s interpretation is that ALTs were “okay” but were not pumping like crazy, and TOTAL3ESBTC confirmed that ALTs were not outperforming BTC. ETH.D still had not dropped into its Cloud. Top 10 Dominance dumped Monday, TOTALES.D moved back inside its Cloud in a move Aaron called unsustainable on a pump, and TOTALE50.D had a Breakdown in progress. These are dominance and market-share observations, not spot-price predictions. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
S&P Futures stays strong bullish but is setting up for a Fast-line retrace
DXY closed below long-term support and Aaron is now waiting for the same “run and dump”: a move up to tag newly lost support. USDJPY remains in trouble but still needs a drop below the Cloud. S&P Futures is still strong bullish, yet it looks to be setting up for a retrace to the Fast line before bullish continuation. NVDA still needs to push above TBO Resistance, TSLA is chopping inside the Cloud, and SPCX made a slightly higher local high at 149.80. VIX bounced instead of falling Monday, though Aaron still expects it to head toward TBO Support.
LINK’s overbought pause, SOL’s pending Cloud loss and mixed ALT signals
LINK is pausing near 9.41, which Aaron says is okay only so long as RSI stays overbought; he explicitly adds that this is not sustainable. SOL printed a TBO Close Short on Monday, but Aaron says it does not really matter yet because price technically tested support, now resistance, again; SOL still needs a drop below the TBO Cloud. DOGE printed a second TBT Bullish Divergence Cluster. UNI confirmed a bullish RSI Reset Monday while also working on a TBO Open Short. XRP remains very strong bearish with 0.9380 still the stated destination, BNB is in bearish consolidation, ADA is strong bearish below the Cloud, SUI lost support, and DOT followed SUI.
SKY offers a source-explicit short setup while VVV, FIL and ETHFI keep distinct states
SKY is tagging the Fast line, giving Aaron a short-entry opportunity on a macro bearish chart. This is a chart setup, not a complete trade plan; no stop, leverage, take-profit or probability was supplied. VVV delivered a shock pump instead of the expected dump, broke above overhead resistance and went overbought on RSI, with Aaron warning traders to watch TBO Cloud squeezes. FIL is working on a TBO Breakdown after falling more than 6%, so its Breakdown is in progress. ETHFI’s bearish short entry is expected soon, but it is not confirmed yet. HYPE, by contrast, had almost reached the Cloud top and was struggling at the old all-time high, prompting Aaron to advise shaving profit from a long rather than issuing a fresh short call.
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