Bitcoin Breaks Past $73K: Real Bull Run or Ultimate Bull Trap?

On Wednesday, Bitcoin broke above $65,000 and has since rallied to about $73,856. Key drivers included US Treasury bond buybacks, White House regulatory support, and a massive short squeeze.

However, the persistent question for every investor and onlooker right now is: has Bitcoin entered a bull run or is this just a bull trap?

Bitcoin bull run or bull trap?

Bitcoin structurally mimics the 2022 bear market, even with the FTX crash factored in. This means the coin is likely to follow a similar rally to the one that ensued after that year’s crash.

Additionally, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score is currently 0.56. This is neutral territory, where prices are based on on-chain cost basis rather than speculative hype.

Source: Look Into Bitcoin

Third is the weekly Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), which currently stands at 49.5 – the edge of a major structural shift. Supporting this bullish argument is that BTC initially printed lower lows near $59,000, while RSI printed higher lows.

Fourth is the Realized HODL (RHODL) Ratio, which is increasingly approaching the green band. This is a positive sign since it shows speculative retailers have been flushed out in favor of long-term holders. Historically, this indicator has successfully identified the market bottoms of 2015, 2018, and 2022.