Analysis: Bitcoin Spot, Perpetual Futures Demand Recover Together for First Time in Months

The key difference this time, RugaResearch wrote, is that spot demand is recovering alongside futures demand. In April and May, perpetual futures demand turned strongly positive while spot demand remained negative. Bitcoin climbed from $70,000 to $82,000 during that period, but surrendered all of those gains in June when futures demand swung sharply back into negative territory.

"Leverage can move prices, but it can't hold them there," RugaResearch wrote. This time, spot demand is participating as well. That means the latest rebound is not being driven only by leveraged demand in derivatives, but also by outright spot buying.

Still, it is too early to treat the move as a full trend reversal. Both spot and perpetual futures demand growth rates are only slightly above zero, meaning the current recovery could reverse again in the near term.

"This crossover is shallow, and the 30-day cumulative indicator, having just turned, could flip back within a week," he added. "You can't confirm a bottom with a single indicator."

The key test ahead is not simply whether Bitcoin rises further, but whether spot demand proves durable. RugaResearch said the signal to watch is whether spot demand stays above zero even when the price shows little movement. Demand that persists when nothing is happening is the kind of demand that lasts.