3 Reasons MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Could Climb While Bitcoin Remains Flat

The premium that once reached 1.4 times of Bitcoin has since collapsed, and here the math splits in two. On a basic basis, which counts only the common stock, mNAV slipped under 1 to about 0.7, so the shares were worth less than the Bitcoin behind them.

What Strategy’s Bitcoin Is Worth: BeInCrypto

Trackers that also fold in Strategy’s preferred shares and convertible debt read higher, closer to 1.05, which is why you will see both numbers quoted.

That discount is the setup. If sentiment steadies and the premium re-rates back toward 1.5, the stock could climb by half with Bitcoin doing nothing at all.

How can that premium rise while Bitcoin holds still? Because it is a demand multiple, not a fixed amount, so it swells when more money wants MicroStrategy as a convenient, leveraged Bitcoin bet than wants the coin itself. Index buying, share buybacks that shrink the supply, or a simple return of risk appetite can each lift it.

Reason Two, Strategy Buys Back Its Own Stock

The second reason is what the company now does with its cash. When the premium sat above 1, Strategy could sell new shares at a markup, buy Bitcoin, and hand holders more Bitcoin per share. Near 1, that accretion engine stalls, so the buying stopped.

Strategy’s last Bitcoin purchase came in mid-June, and it has since gone about eight weeks without adding a coin. Instead, it funnels cash into its STRC preferred stock, a share class that pays a rich dividend and is built to trade near $100, buying it back to defend that price.

The move is deliberate.

Strategy Has Paused Its Bitcoin Buying: BeInCrypto

Retiring stock below its value lifts the Bitcoin behind each remaining share, so holders can gain even while Bitcoin sits flat.

Reason Three: The Sellers Have Quit

The third reason sits on the chart. MSTR has traded inside a rising channel since late June, carving higher lows while Bitcoin drifted sideways. Monday’s 5% candle bounced off the lower edge near $92.

MSTR Stock Rising Channel and Volume: TradingView

The volume seals it. Trading is down about 63% from June, and since early August, the selling has thinned while buyers have crept back to July levels. Tired sellers and steadier buyers point to seller exhaustion, not fresh mania.

What the Price Action Says Now

All three reasons now meet at one line, $100. A clean break above the round number exposes $101.96, and clearing it opens $104.73 and then $108.26.

The bigger signal sits higher. A push above $118.46 would give the stock room to run toward $134.95 and even $151.44. That zone only reaches the low end of Wall Street’s target range, and the average target sits far above even that.

MSTR Forecast: TipRanks

Below the action, $98.07 and $95.66 are the first supports, and a daily close under $91.77 breaks the channel and voids the case.

MSTR Stock Price Analysis: TradingView

Analyst’s View: So the bullish case for the MSTR stock is possible but conditional. MSTR stock only rewards the Strong Buy if Bitcoin steadies. And also if the premium heals and the price clears $118, the upper trendline of the bullish channel.