Michael Howell Says 2026 Won't Be A Big Year For Bitcoin, Sees 30-Year Yield Going Higher

Speaking on 30-year yields, Michael Howell said that he sees yields rising to 6%, leaving the economy to depend on refinancing.

• According to Michael Howell, Bitcoin tracks wholesale financial market liquidity rather than conventional M2.
• Howell stated that AI capital expenditure and a significant U.S. deficit were the reason for which Bitcoin's price saw a drawdown.
• He believed that the global liquidity cycle will reach its lowest point in 2027, which would give more room for Bitcoin's growth.

Cross-border capital founder and well-known liquidity expert, Michael Howell, believes that investors monitoring global M2 have misread Bitcoin's recent weakness. He argued that the cryptocurrency responds to wholesale liquidity flowing through financial markets rather than retail bank deposits.

On the Bitcoin news channel podcast, Howell explained that the growing gap between Global M2 and Bitcoin's price is a definitional issue rather than a signal. "M2 is not the metric to look at. It often gives very, very false signals. We don't use it in any of our work," he said, adding that M2 is more appropriate for describing activity in the real economy than financial assets.

M2 is the U.S. Federal Reserve's estimate of liquid assets, which includes anything from cash on hand, money deposited in checking and savings accounts to other short-term savings vehicles, such as money market funds and certificates of deposit.