VanEck Says Bitcoin Is Nearing a Cyclical Bottom

“These cycles are features, not structural breaks.”

Reading the GEO signals

The firm’s GEO framework tracks global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity.

Two of the three signals are currently neutral, while ecosystem leverage reads as constructive.

VanEck said the combination points to near-bottoming conditions that may warrant beginning to scale in, though it cautioned that historical market-cycle patterns may not repeat and should not be treated as a market-timing signal.

Gold and macro backdrop

Alongside bitcoin, VanEck highlighted gold’s recent consolidation as a pause within a structural bull market, pointing to central banks as net buyers, widening fiscal deficits, and inflation running persistently above target.

Incoming Federal Reserve leadership adds another layer of policy uncertainty, the firm noted.

For bitcoin exposure, VanEck pointed to its own spot bitcoin ETF, HODL, as well as NODE, an actively managed fund that incorporates bitcoin cycle indicators to adjust risk exposure.

The broader message from the outlook was that concentration has given way to dispersion, and that allocators should stay invested in structural themes while redeploying into areas of cyclical weakness.