- On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score had fallen to 0.40-0.41, far below its long-term average of 1.69, signaling that market valuation has cooled.
- He identified Bitcoin’s adjusted realized price of $57,600 as the most important downside threshold, saying a break below that level could weaken market structure.
- He said a recovery in Bitcoin to $72,000 and in the MVRV Z-Score to 1.69 could signal that valuation expansion has resumed.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin’s valuation has fallen sharply below its historical average, but the market has not yet entered a broad capitulation phase, according to an on-chain analysis. The report flagged $57,600 as the key threshold below which market structure could deteriorate more meaningfully.
On Aug. 10, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote in a newsletter that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score had fallen to 0.40 to 0.41. That is well below the long-term average of 1.69.
The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which reflects investors’ average purchase price, adjusted for historical volatility. Higher readings indicate the market is trading at a larger premium to investors’ average cost basis.
“The current reading shows the market’s valuation has cooled sharply, but it has not yet fallen below zero,” Adler wrote. In past cycles, he added, negative readings coincided with severe undervaluation and market stress.
Bitcoin is trading at $65,249, about 13.3% above the adjusted realized price of $57,600, which represents the average acquisition cost of active Bitcoin. It has yet to reclaim the upper threshold of $72,000.
